Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.917313 1.075835 1.253529 1.467508 1.718280 2.002982 2.350949
2024-10-13 0.633853 0.832452 1.081321 1.416284 1.855854 2.413843 3.177403
2024-10-20 0.482690 0.687147 0.964528 1.368745 1.943850 2.734560 3.907854
2024-10-27 0.385456 0.585732 0.875482 1.325831 2.010004 3.013660 4.604340
2024-11-03 0.331356 0.532702 0.840621 1.346629 2.160225 3.422591 5.540818
2024-11-10 0.305447 0.516431 0.855511 1.441240 2.432128 4.048855 6.904324
2024-11-17 0.275161 0.487035 0.843266 1.487216 2.628202 4.577066 8.183806
2024-11-24 0.244239 0.450960 0.813297 1.496336 2.759429 5.010093 9.359308
2024-12-01 0.215529 0.413917 0.775391 1.483962 2.847547 5.375064 10.460350
2024-12-08 0.192097 0.382838 0.743298 1.476395 2.941190 5.759250 11.649177
2024-12-15 0.174760 0.360750 0.724618 1.491003 3.077970 6.240990 13.095802
2024-12-22 0.152683 0.325840 0.675891 1.438020 3.070467 6.435037 13.981537
2024-12-29 0.147833 0.326434 0.699831 1.540909 3.406094 7.384919 16.629800
2025-01-05 0.129798 0.296190 0.655513 1.491880 3.409794 7.639249 17.807347
2025-01-12 0.114216 0.268993 0.613800 1.442091 3.403657 7.869772 18.965098
2025-01-19 0.101065 0.245367 0.576614 1.396882 3.400686 8.105627 20.170300
2025-01-26 0.093993 0.235051 0.568436 1.418804 3.559934 8.740492 22.441495
2025-02-02 0.092289 0.237568 0.590866 1.518519 3.924454 9.919347 26.261253
2025-02-09 0.087643 0.231987 0.592790 1.566976 4.166766 10.830885 29.535437
2025-02-16 0.081385 0.221297 0.580422 1.576588 4.309372 11.508871 32.294870
2025-02-23 0.074693 0.208449 0.560683 1.563547 4.389064 12.032645 34.712200
2025-03-02 0.068903 0.197225 0.543698 1.555570 4.481615 12.604369 37.357490
2025-03-09 0.064621 0.189614 0.535455 1.570967 4.642700 13.388644 40.747584